IMF, which has also lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2016 and 2017 by a marginal 0.1 per cent to 3.1 and 3.4 per cent respectively, recommended six 'reform priorities' for India
The second-quarter GDP numbers are scheduled to be announced on Friday.
International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Gita Gopinath tells Indivjal Dhasmana high-frequency indicators for the third quarter of 2021 indicate momentum in economic recovery in India.
Softening inflation, Das said would make available more policy space to the central bank to address risks to the growth going forward.
For 2017-18 and 2018-19, investors are better off focusing on the quality of measures announced in the Budget and outside it rather than on the Budget numbers themselves, says T T Ram Mohan.
The Finance Ministry expects GDP growth to be 8-8.5 per cent in 2015-16.
Starting with the third quarter of financial year 2020-21 (Q3FY21), we have seen "unlock" trades at various times. Whenever lockdowns have been eased, traders have taken long positions in consumer-facing businesses. Let's look at the logic. Since March 2020, sectors like retail, personal vehicles, hospitality, aviation, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), multiplexes, etc., have been under severe pressure. As a result, there's been a low base effect. Every company in these spaces has suffered top line contraction. Many suffered losses, especially in the first half of FY21.
Slowing economy, election-related uncertainty and tighter monetary conditions pose risks for Indian markets and the BSE index, Sensex, is likely to hover around 20,250 by the end of this year.
'If you look at the order books of capital equipment companies or money deployed on the ground, there is forward movement in terms of actual investment by the private sector.'
ICICI Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 3 per cent, followed by Axis Bank, HDFC twins, SBI, L&T, ONGC and Infosys. On the other hand, Sun Pharma, Asian Paints, Nestle India, UltraTech Cement and HUL declined. NSE Nifty rose by 79.60 points or 0.67 per cent to 11,914.20.
Global funds, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, are now beginning to pay more attention to India with the market now offering 30 companies with a market capitalisation over $25 billion.
The rising COVID-19 infections across the country are a matter of concern, but it may not impact the ongoing economic revival as one does not foresee lockdowns, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. The economic revival will continue "unabated", Das said, asserting that there is no need for a downward revision of RBI's 10.5 per cent GDP growth forecast for FY22. Speaking at Times Network's India Economic Conclave, Das said, "We have 'insurance' to protect economic revival like a fast-paced vaccination drive, greater ability among people to follow COVID protocols", and one does not see lockdowns as well.
The SBI report ruled out a October rate hike
Stating that India's economic stimulus was not adequate, Banerjee said, the measures did not increase consumption spending of lower income people as the government was not willing to put money in the hands of the low income population.
The country's economy is expected to grow by around 6 per cent in the current fiscal, even in the worst-case scenario of global recession prevailing till March 2010, according to Arvind Virmani, chief economic adviser in the Ministry of Finance.
Inflation is on a declining trend, Eco Survey stated.
Other gainers included SBI, Kotak Bank, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors, M&M and Tata Steel, rising up to 5.19 per cent.
Indian economy is doing well and the performance of domestic stock markets is not as bad as that of other nations.
Changes in global oil and gas rates matter more to India's economy than other major economies because the country imports around 87 per cent of its oil, half of its gas in the form of LNG, and over 60 per cent of its LPG.
Manufacturing sector activities in India moderated in June from a 31-month high in May, but output remained in the growth territory, as new work orders expanded sharply amid favourable demand conditions, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 58.7 in May to 57.8 in June. Despite the fall, the headline figure pointed to a considerable improvement in operating conditions, the survey said, adding that the demand strength positively impacted several other measures such as sales, production, stock building and employment.
'We all wanted a strong Centre with a decisive mandate from the people, to allow them to take bold decisions.'
India would be a major beneficiary of softer oil prices among the G20 economies as the country is a major crude importer.
Stating that COVID-19 has not yet been contained in India, the rating agency in a statement said the government stimulus package is low relative to countries with similar economic impacts from the pandemic. "The COVID-19 outbreak in India and two months of lockdown -- longer in some areas -- have led to a sudden stop in the economy. That means growth will contract sharply this fiscal year (April 2020 to March 2021)," it said. "Economic activity will face ongoing disruption over the next year as the country transitions to a post-COVID-19 world."
Top losers in the Sensex pack included IndusInd Bank, Yes Bank, SBI, L&T, Tata Steel, M&M, Bajaj Finance, Vedanta, Tata Motors and RIL, tumbling up to 6.97 per cent.
Bank of America (BofA) Securities expects India to be the third-largest economy in the world by 2031. The economic rise could become a reality by 2028, but the Covid pandemic delayed the pace, BofA Securities economists Indranil Sen Gupta and Aastha Gudwani wrote in a report.
Some experts argue that India's new growth figures are due to the revised calculation of GDP, which was launched in January
Assocham expressed concern over the precarious situation that the manufacturing sector is in, observing that if the trend does not reverse with monetary and fiscal measures it would be difficult for the industry to generate jobs.
The cost of not vaccinating the entire population quickly will be far higher than bearing the entire cost of vaccination, points out Prosenjit Datta.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday raised the personal income tax rebate limit, doled out sops on small savings and announced one of the biggest hikes in capital spending in the past decade as she did a tight rope walk in the Budget between staying fiscally prudent and meeting public expectations in the year before general elections.
Armed with necessary macro and micro growth drivers, India is on its way to becoming the fastest growing major economy in the world, a finance ministry report said. Rapid vaccination and teeming festivities will push India's ongoing recovery resulting in narrowing of demand-supply mismatches and greater employment opportunities, as per the monthly Economic Review prepared by the ministry.
If the fiscal deficit for the year can be maintained at Rs 7.04 trillion, the deficit as a percentage of GDP will slip to 3.44 per cent
Drop in oil prices and the government's reform agenda has helped India to be out of the Fragile Five group
According to the global business information, knowledge and insight provider, India is likely to achieve an average growth rate of around 7.5 per cent during FY15-FY20.
Public investment is very crucial for GDP growth, says finance ministry.
India's economy, estimated to contract by 6.9 per cent in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, is forecast to record a "stronger recovery" in 2021 and grow by 5 per cent, according to a UN report which said the country's current fiscal year budget points to a shift towards demand-side stimulus, with an uptick in public investment. The report, 'Out of the frying pan ...Into the fire?' published Thursday as an update to the Trade and Development Report 2020 by UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said the global economy is set to grow by 4.7 per cent this year, faster than the 4.3 per cent predicted in September 2020, thanks in part to a stronger recovery in the US, where progress in distributing vaccines and a fresh fiscal stimulus of $1.9 trillion are expected to boost consumer spending.
Equity benchmarks extended their decline for the fourth straight session on Wednesday, with the Sensex falling 214.85 points after the Reserve Bank raised the key interest rate by 50 basis points. Continuous foreign fund outflows and surging crude oil prices also weighed on markets. The 30-share BSE benchmark dropped 214.85 points or 0.39 per cent to settle at 54,892.49.
While the US-Iran conflict leading to a spike in global oil prices and trade war between the US and the EU topped the chart with 25 per cent, other major risks to the global economy include coronavirus, debt burdens causing a recess across emerging markets and Hong Kong protests causing an exodus from Asia's biggest financial centre.
Leading economists have pencilled in a high 13-15.7 per cent uptick in the economy in the first quarter of 2022-23 with an upward bias. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India, on Tuesday said he expects the GDP to clip past 15.7 per cent in the first quarter with more chances of the final numbers printing in higher, while Aditi Nayar, the chief economist at the rating agency Icra, said the economy will grow much lower at 13 per cent in the June quarter. The national statistical office will announce the first quarter GDP numbers later next week.
